Raising the minimum wage would save lives
In 2016, the Health Department published a paper showing how a higher minimum wage could have reduced thousands of premature deaths in NYC — up to 8%.
Since our initial analysis, inequities in premature death have only grown. These inequities motivated us to launch Healthy NYC.
We’ve since updated this data using the same methods, analyzing adjusted minimum wages of $20 and $30 an hour. These new estimates continue to suggest that raising the minimum wage can significantly reduce the inequities in premature death — with the most benefits going to the neighborhoods with the most low-income residents.
About the data
This updated minimum wage analysis was conducted using the same methods as the 2016 paper, Estimating potential reductions in premature mortality in New York City from raising the minimum wage to $15. Data sources: NYC Vital Statistics (2023), American Community Survey (2023), and DOHMH population estimates (2023).
Minimum wage:
A $30 minimum wage could:
✅ Reduce the proportion of low-income New Yorkers from 33.5% to somewhere between 27.7 and 31.2%.
✅ Reduce the expected premature death rate (deaths before age 65, per 100,000 people) from 215.7 to between 195.4 and 207.6. This could prevent as many as 1,400 premature deaths each year.
These impacts would be largest in neighborhoods with more low-income residents.
Scenario
Scenario 1: the higher minimum wage raises wages of people who previously earned less than the new minimum wage, but does not affect employment.
Scenario 2: a higher minimum wage creates "spillover effects:" people earning just above the new minimum wage also see wage increases.
Scenario 3: a higher minimum wage has no spillover effects, and also results in a 1.5% loss of minimum wage jobs for every 10% increase in minimum wage.
Demographic data by proportion of low-income residents
Economic inequality and resultant premature death in New York City is highly concentrated by neighborhood. Owing to the impacts of structural racism, neighborhoods with a higher proportion of low-income residents tend to have larger proportions of Black and Hispanic residents. Our analysis suggests that a minimum wage could have an impact on racial and ethnic inequities in premature deaths.
About expected premature deaths: For this analysis, we modelled expected premature death, using a variety of demographic factors (detailed below). When modelled based on these factors, expected premature death correlates very closely to actual premature death. Using expected premature death allows us to model new values for expected premature death, based on changing the values for components of the model - namely low-income population, under the new minimum wages and scenarios. Additional methodological details will be in our forthcoming manuscript.
Note: A major caveat of this analysis is that the impact of a higher minimum wage on employment may be larger than that assumed in the analysis, especially at a level of $30 per hour. Hence, the estimated impact of a $30 minimum wage on premature mortality may not be as large as suggested by this analysis.